Week 1 RB Rankings Downgrades For Fantasy Football: Christian McCaffrey, MarShawn Lloyd & More

Let's get into the Week 1 RB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 1 favorites and fades.

Week 1 Running Back Rankings (Top 24)

Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Bijan Robinson
3	Christian McCaffrey
4	James Cook
5	Jonathan Taylor
6	Kenneth Walker
7	Saquon Barkley
8	De'Von Achane
9	Derrick Henry
10	Chase Brown
11	Ashton Jeanty
12	Omarion Hampton
13	Jeremiyah Love
14	Breece Hall
15	Javonte Williams
16	Travis Etienne
17	Kyren Williams
18	Cam Skattebo
19	D'Andre Swift
20	Jadarian Price
21	Quinshon Judkins
22	Bhayshul Tuten
23	David Montgomery
24	TreVeyon Henderson

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Week 1 RB Rankings - Matchup Downgrades: James Cook at Texans & Kenneth Walker vs. Broncos

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Texans and Broncos last year were two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

Texans: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-3.4)
Broncos: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (15.1)

James Cook (Bills) at Texans: Cook is one of my 2026 fantasy favorites, in part because he's attached to QB Josh Allen, who has been especially strong indoors (10-5-1 ATS, 26.0% ROI, per Action Network) … but the Bills are facing the Texans. There's only so far down the ranks I can push Cook: When he played the Texans last year in Week 12, Cook had 20.4 fantasy points (129 yards, one TD on 17 carries, three targets), but that's likely his ceiling outcome, and given the matchup, his floor is low enough to get some investors chopped this week in Guillotine Leagues™.

Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) vs. Broncos: With QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) returning from a season-ending injury, Walker could be the primary engine of the Chiefs offense … but there could be transition issues given that it's his first game with the team and the matchup is tough. It's theoretically a boon for him that the Chiefs are at home, but over the past half decade, they've been No. 3 in worst home-field advantage (-0.90, per NFElo), which is diminished all the more against the Broncos, a divisional opponent who play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. On top of that, Mahomes is on the wrong side of his splits as a divisional favorite (17-23-2 ATS, -15.6% ROI), and we tend not to see many points in general at Arrowhead Stadium: No QB has been more profitable to the under at home than Mahomes (49-29-1, 20.3% ROI). Walker is a great player, as evidenced by his elite postseason production (417 yards, four TDs in three games), but he could have a forgettable Chiefs debut.

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 1 RB Rankings: Christian McCaffrey vs. Rams & MarShawn Lloyd at Vikings

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the RB."

For their baselines, I have the 49ers projected this year with the No. 2 offense; the Packers, No. 4. But this week the 49ers and Packers are tied at No. 18 in implied team total (22 points).

Downgrades warranted.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs. Rams (in Australia): It sounds stupid to say something like, "I'm downgrading CMC," because he almost always needs to be ranked and projected as a top-three RB no matter what, given that last year he was the No. 1 RB in Utilization Score (98, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But in 2025 he had two of his worst games of the season against the Rams (a total of 235 yards, one TD on 34 carries, 19 targets), and given that they've added two future Hall of Famers in EDGE Myles Garrett and DT Aaron Donald, they could improve last year's No. 5 rankings in defensive rush DVOA (-15.7%). Add on the fact that McCaffrey (undisclosed) is dealing with an (albeit probably minor) injury and QB Brock Purdy hasn't measured up against the Rams (0-3 ATS, -100% ROI) or as an underdog (1-5 ATS, -68.2% ROI); it's easy for me to say that this week there's a tier between Jahmyr Gibbs as the No. 1 RB and McCaffrey.

MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) at Vikings: Without starter Josh Jacobs (Commissioner Exempt List), Lloyd is in line to serve as the top back for the Packers this week … but the Vikings are a tough divisional opponent, and QB Jordan Love has underwhelmed on the road (11-16-1 ATS, -21.4% ROI). Also, this is just Lloyd's second NFL game after missing most of the 2024-25 seasons to injury. He might be good, but who really knows?

RB Rankings Injury Downgrades For Week 1: Jeremiyah Love at Chargers & TreVeyon Henderson at Seahawks

Here are a couple of RBs who get downgrades because of injuries.

Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) at Chargers: Love (ankle) is dealing with a sprain, which could limit him in his NFL debut, especially because the team has highly competent No. 2 RB Tyler Allgeier behind him. On top of that, as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on turf (instead of grass), the Cardinals are at a significant disadvantage on the road against the Chargers, who last year were No. 3 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (16.4).

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) at Seahawks: Henderson (ankle) is already less than 100%, and even if he weren't, I wouldn't dream of using him against the Seahawks, who last year were No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.205), defensive rush SR (35.8%), and defensive rush DVOA (-30.1%). Henderson finished No. 3 in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting last season with 1,132 yards and 10 TDs, but he did little in the postseason (109 yards, four games) and still is behind No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Eventually, Henderson could be a reliable difference maker, but he isn't yet.

Week 1 Road Dog Downgrades In The RB Rankings: Bijan Robinson at Steelers & De'Von Achane at Raiders

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) at Steelers: Like McCaffrey, Robinson is a locked-in top-three dude at the position … but I still see a sizable difference this week between Jahmyr Gibbs as the No. 1 RB and everyone else. HC Kevin Stefanski is terrible on the road (19-32 ATS, -28.1% ROI), and the Falcons are granting maximal home-field advantage to the Steelers as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on grass (instead of turf) and outdoors (instead of indoors). And the Steelers last year were No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-3.2). While the Falcons are +3 road dogs at most sportsbooks, I have this projected at an actionable +4.5.

De'Von Achane (Dolphins) at Raiders: I love Achane as a player, but the Dolphins could struggle early on without former HC Mike McDaniel, and in this game they're disadvantaged traveling across the country to play a late game outside their typical 1 pm ET timeslot against a non-divisional team. A three-down dominator over the past two seasons (3,337 yards, 24 TDs on 441 carries, 172 targets), Achane figures to be used heavily in the Dolphins offense, but there's a real chance it could suck in Week 1 against a Raiders defense that added LBs Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker this offseason and is getting back Pro Bowl EDGE Maxx Crosby.

Notes

Find all of my Week 1 favorites and fades below:

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.