Upgrades for Week 1 Wide Receiver Rankings: Tetairoa McMillan, Chris Olave And More

Let's get into the Week 1 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 1 favorites and fades.

Week 1 Wide Receiver Rankings (Top 36)

Rank	Player
1	Ja'Marr Chase
2	Puka Nacua
3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba
4	Justin Jefferson
5	Amon-Ra St. Brown
6	CeeDee Lamb
7	Malik Nabers
8	Drake London
9	A.J. Brown
10	Nico Collins
11	DeVonta Smith
12	Chris Olave
13	George Pickens
14	Rashee Rice
15	Tetairoa McMillan
16	Tee Higgins
17	Zay Flowers
18	Jaylen Waddle
19	Garrett Wilson
20	Emeka Egbuka
21	Ladd McConkey
22	Jameson Williams
23	Davante Adams
24	DJ Moore
25	Luther Burden
26	Christian Watson
27	Mike Evans
28	Terry McLaurin
29	DK Metcalf
30	Parker Washington
31	Carnell Tate
32	Rome Odunze
33	Brian Thomas
34	Chris Godwin
35	Jayden Reed
36	Michael Wilson

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Week 1 Matchup Upgrades: Malik Nabers vs. Cowboys & Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Jets

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Cowboys and Jets last year were two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.

Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.1)
Jets: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.291) and pass DVOA (45.3%)

Malik Nabers (Giants) vs. Cowboys: As a 21-year-old rookie, Nabers had an elite 2024 campaign (109-1,204-7 receiving on 170 targets, 15 games; No. 2 WR in Utilization Score at 91, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). In 2025, Nabers (knee) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4, but for the first month he was a small-sample usage king (league-high 51% air yard share). He's uncertain for Week 1, but if he plays, I feel sadly certain that he'll destroy my Cowboys, against whom last year in Week 2 he scored 33.2 fantasy points (9-167-2 receiving, 13 targets). And if Nabers is out, then WR Malachi Fields might step up as a viable flier. For what it's worth, Week 1 has historically been the most profitable time to bet divisional underdogs (71-48-2 ATS, 15.9% ROI, per Action Network), and HC John Harbaugh has often started the regular season hot (12-6 ATS in Week 1, 31.5% ROI).

Wan'Dale Robinson (Titans) vs. Jets: I'm sick enough to where I might actually think about starting Robinson this week in Guillotine Leagues. He isn't exciting. His career efficiency is modest (6.3 yards per target), and he has just 9 TDs across four NFL seasons. But he's effective at turning targets into receptions (68.9% catch rate): Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Justin Jefferson are the only WRs with more targets over the past two seasons (280). With the Titans, Robinson is uncertain to repeat his 2025 success (92-1,014-4 receiving), but he has a history with OC Brian Daboll, and that gives him a real chance to be the No. 1 WR for the Titans this year.

Week 1 Scoring Upgrades: Quentin Johnston vs. Cardinals, Jameson Williams vs. Saints & Davante Adams vs. 49ers

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WRs."

This week the Chargers are No. 1 in implied team total (28.5 points), the Lions are No. 2 (28.25), and the Rams are No. 4 (25.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs. Cardinals: I like Johnston more than I probably should. Perhaps it's because we're both TCU Horned Frogs. He unquestionably disappointed in 2023 as a rookie (38-431-2 receiving), but he has improved each year of his career (6.4 yards per target, 7.8, 8.8), and over the past two seasons he has been a livable low-end fantasy contributor (106-1,446-16, 175 targets). Playing indoors against a Cardinals defense that last year was No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.7%), Johnston could go off, especially since all signs point to the Chargers dominating: They're facing a non-divisional opponent playing on turf (instead of grass), and Herbert tends to outperform in Week 1 (4-1 ATS, 55.4% ROI), as does HC Jim Harbaugh (6-0 ATS, 100% ROI).

Jameson Williams (Lions) vs. Saints: Williams started out slow in the NFL with injury- and suspension-impacted 2022-23 seasons, but over the past two years he has put up back-to-back 1,000-yard, 7-TD campaigns with über-elite efficiency (11.0 yards per target). As the team's No. 2 WR, he's a clear tier below All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown, and he's in competition with RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta for targets, but this is a spot where he could outperform, as the Saints last year were No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (24.6%). With a 50-point over/under, this game could result in a plethora of fantasy points for many participants, and QB Jared Goff throughout his career he has been especially sharp indoors (48-27-1 ATS, 22.4% ROI) and in Week 1 (8-1 ATS, 72% ROI).

Davante Adams (Rams) vs. 49ers (in Australia): One of my 2026 fantasy favorites, Adams in 2025 had his lowest yardage total (789) in a decade, and over the past three years (after he turned 30), his efficiency has disappeared (7.0 yards per target). But (to my eye) he's still a good professional receiver, and the Rams relied on him heavily last year where it mattered most, with an NFL-high 27 targets in the end zone and 23 inside the 10-yard line, resulting in a league-leading 14 TDs in just 14 games. Say what you want about him, but Adams is still attached to a prolific offense schemed by HC Sean McVay and led by MVP QB Matthew Stafford. Plus, it doesn't hurt that the Rams have done well as a team against 49ers QB Brock Purdy (3-0 ATS, 87.8% ROI).

Week 1 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Chris Olave at Lions & Jordan Addison vs. Packers

Here are a couple WRs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Chris Olave (Saints) at Lions: Olave broke out last year (100-1,163-9 receiving) and was especially strong after the Saints traded away No. 2 WR Rashid Shaheed (No. 2 Utilization Score at 92; 45-603-6 receiving on 69 targets in seven games). I think Olave is a true No. 1 WR in the league, and this week he gets the Lions, who last year were No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.7) and this week will be without SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP) in the secondary. With No. 2 WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring, IR) sidelined to open the season, Olave should dominate targets for the Saints.

Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs. Packers: In full disclosure, Addison is one of my 2026 fantasy fades, but I like his matchup against the Packers, who last year were No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (22.9%) and are now without first-team All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons (knee, PUP). The Vikings last season were No. 2 in home-field advantage (+12.5, per NFElo), and QB Kyler Murray has historically done well in Week 1 (5-1 ATS, 65.4% ROI). For what it's worth, I like the Vikings to win the Super Bowl at +5000.

Week 1 Offensive Injury Upgrades: De'Zhaun Stribling vs. Rams & Keenan Allen vs. Ravens

Here are a couple WRs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

De'Zhaun Stribling (49ers) vs. Rams (in Australia): The matchup is tough. Last year, the Rams were No. 4 in defensive pass DVOA (-9.8%) … and then they added two future Hall of Famers in EDGE Myles Garrett and DT Aaron Donald. But the 49ers are without WRs Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR) and Christian Kirk (calf, IR), and No. 1 WR Mike Evans (groin) and TE George Kittle (Achilles) are uncertain, so the rookie Stribling could have an opportunity to assert himself. While I think he was overdrafted at the top of Round 2, it's undeniable that Stribling has legit athleticism (4.36-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 207 pounds), and he looked like a potential star in the preseason (11-109-0 receiving, 13 targets in two limited games).

Keenan Allen (Colts) vs. Ravens: Although Allen just last week was arrested for a DUI, he'll suit up in Week 1, and he might do so without some combination of WRs Alec Pierce (ankle) and Josh Downs (calf) and TE Tyler Warren (groin), all of whom have uncertain health statuses. Now 34 years old, Allen is no longer the player he once was, but he's had 120+ targets in each of the past two seasons with two different teams (Bears, Chargers). Allen has had 700+ yards receiving in every year of his career except the one in which he played just a single game. He won't go off against the Ravens, but he's a professional pass catcher who will contribute if teammates are out. HC Shane Steichen has done well in the first month of the season (8-4 ATS, 28.2% ROI), and the Colts have an amplified home-field advantage against the Ravens, who are outside of division, on turf (instead of grass) and indoors (instead of outdoors).

Week 1 Indoors Upgrades: Nico Collins vs. Bills & Tre Tucker vs. Dolphins

In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Nico Collins (Texans) vs. Bills: Collins has been one of the league's most productive yet still underappreciated WRs since 2023, when the Texans drafted QB C.J. Stroud. Over the past three seasons, Collins has displayed elite efficiency (10.4 yards per target) and been one of just six WRs with 1,000+ yards receiving in each campaign. I wish he had a better QB, but even so, whenever Collins is indoors, he's an absolute monster (10.3 yards per target for career vs. 7.9 outdoors). Without WRs Tank Dell (knee, IR) and Jayden Higgins (knee, IR), Collins could see 10+ targets against a Bills defense that could struggle in its first game under DC Jim Leonhard.

Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs. Dolphins: I don't really want to say anything nice about Tucker, but last year he was the No. 3 WR in the league in snap rate (95%), tied with Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase), and he led the Raiders with 92 targets and 696 yards receiving. In this spot, he's home and indoors, and he's facing the Dolphins, who last year were No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.3%). I'm just sayin' …

Week 1 Air Yards Upgrades: Tetairoa McMillan vs. Bears & Garrett Wilson at Titans

The WRs who are targeted downfield (the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares and WOPRs) have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.

You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Here are two air yard accumulators who have my attention this week.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs. Bears: McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year with 70-1,014-7 receiving on 122 targets, joining Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Percy Harvin, Odell Beckham, Ja'Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson as one of just seven WRs to earn OROY over the past three decades. Pretty good group. I wish that he weren't attached to QB Bryce Young, but last year he was the No. 3 WR in air yard share (50%), and I expect him to do well against the Bears, who last year were No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+3.8) and this week are granting a larger-than-usual home-field advantage to the Panthers as non-divisional opponents playing on turf (instead of grass). For the season, I like McMillan to go over 949.5 receiving yards.

Garrett Wilson (Jets) at Titans: I have the Jets projected with the No. 32 offense this year. Not good … but I guess it's an upgrade that this week they're No. 29 in implied team total (18.5). Wilson had an injury-impacted seven-game campaign in 2025, but he finished No. 1 in air yard share (55%) and WOPR (91%), and in his three previous seasons, he had 1,000+ yards each year and averaged 9.2 targets per game. As long as QB Geno Smith can hit him, Wilson should do work against the Titans, who last year were No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (50.2%). The Jets are underdogs, but they're dogs of just +2.5, which has historically been the most profitable fav/dog spread to bet (243-216 ATS, 5% ROI) … especially in the first month of the season (59-38 ATS, 21.4% ROI).

Notes

You can find all of my Week 1 favorites and fades below:

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.