Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 1

After winning the starting job in training camp, Kyler Murray makes his debut to the delight of Minnesota fans, giving them hope they can get back into form. With Micah Parsons out with a torn ACL, Murray will be able to thrive in the Vikings' home opener against the Green Bay Packers, potentially sparking a run to the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds For Week 1

Spread: Vikings -1.5 (-105, FanDuel)
Moneyline: Vikings (-117, BetRivers)
Game Total: 46.5 (Over -108/Under -112, DraftKings)

Since being drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, J.J. McCarthy has been abysmal, battling countless injuries while hovering near the bottom of the board in EPA per play, CPOE, and bad throw percentage. His demotion led to the acquisition of Kyler Murray, a dual-threat QB who will give their offense some much-needed versatility.

When McCarthy was under center, the Vikings were anemic on offense, plummeting to the bottom of the board in offensive DVOA. Even with their defense playing at a high level, the amount of variance they had to combat on a weekly basis proved to be too much, keeping them out of the playoffs.

While the Vikings' woes could be attributed to their offense, the Green Bay Packers' lack of production on defense held them back from being a well-rounded unit. With Parsons out, the Packers will continue to struggle to generate pressure, giving Murray a clean pocket, which will help trim down the total number of turnover-worthy throws.

Prediction & Pick For Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Matchup

The Pick: Vikings -1.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Not only does the loss of Parsons make it tough for the Packers' front seven to generate pressure, but it will also leave their corners on islands by leaving them in coverage far longer than they can hold their ground. That's a haunting reality when factoring in Justin Jefferson lining up on the outside, arguably one of the most talented players at his position.

With Jefferson consistently breaking away from his assignment, Murray will be able to connect with his star WR at a high rate, keeping them ahead of the sticks. In the rare instance Murray is flushed out of the pocket, the Packers linebackers will be forced to crash down in an attempt to stop him from running, creating larger gaps in their coverage across the middle.

On the other side of the field, the Packers will struggle to match the Vikings' output, battling it out against a defense that brings back a majority of a core that posted top-six marks in defensive DVOA, EPA and success rate. Even with Minnesota’s pressure rate expected to decline, the Packers field an underwhelming offensive line on paper, masking the Vikings' regression.

Green Bay’s struggles in pass protection will also allow Minnesota to crash down their front four while dropping their linebackers in coverage, smothering Jordan Love’s passing lanes. Expect the Vikings to hold the Packers to early outs and use their extra possessions on offense to pull away on the scoreboard.

Best Player Prop Bet For Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Kyler Murray - o220.5 Passing Yards (-110, Fanatics)

Unless the Packers can magically generate a pass rush while Parsons is on the sideline, it’s tough to envision how they will get to Murray, allowing the Vikings QB to go through his progressions without having to throw under pressure. This will also help reduce the amount of havoc in Murray’s throws, increasing his chances of generating a completion.

With Love struggling to keep their drives alive while weaving the ball through narrow passing lanes, any stalled-out drive will feed into Murray’s usage, leading to an uptick in his total number of pass attempts. The Vikings' extra possessions on offense will also help offset any attempts that are lost to carries, putting Murray in a favorable position to clear the over on his passing yardage prop.